{
  "index_codes": {
    "springs": [
      2016,
      2017,
      2018,
      2019,
      2020,
      2021,
      2022,
      2023,
      2024,
      2025,
      2026
    ],
    "per_1000": [
      25.72,
      15.9,
      18.99,
      20.49,
      17.02,
      15.65,
      16.61,
      16.71,
      17.67,
      13.25,
      12.99
    ],
    "codes": [
      2,
      2,
      2,
      2,
      1,
      1,
      1,
      2,
      2,
      0,
      0
    ],
    "rho_2017_2026": 0.763223966153332
  },
  "scatter": {
    "fall_prcp": {
      "r": 0.12990674694186283,
      "slope": 0.04694465109369927
    },
    "winter_tavg": {
      "r": -0.16787466556298075,
      "slope": -0.05995073186195443
    },
    "n": 143
  },
  "paired": {
    "H2": {
      "per_spring": {
        "2017": 0.12525,
        "2018": -0.08071,
        "2019": 0.00199,
        "2020": -0.00179,
        "2021": 0.05842,
        "2022": 0.00112,
        "2023": -0.00659,
        "2024": -0.00026,
        "2025": 0.01855,
        "2026": -0.0041
      },
      "mean": 0.011188211989578145,
      "ci95": [
        -0.017968493891182845,
        0.04317502932663088
      ]
    },
    "H3": {
      "per_spring": {
        "2018": -0.88738,
        "2019": 1.53888,
        "2020": 0.41229,
        "2021": 1.40188,
        "2022": 2.91989,
        "2023": 0.27706,
        "2024": 0.1134,
        "2025": 0.22548,
        "2026": 1.03994
      },
      "mean": 0.7823829692906225,
      "ci95": [
        0.1468131053974312,
        1.4783183582316453
      ]
    }
  },
  "ladder": {
    "logit": {
      "B0 climatology": 0.0,
      "B1 persistence": -0.29469642707906285,
      "M1a fall rain": -0.033653341913016055,
      "M1b winter temp.": -0.044655332809325765,
      "M2 ridge": -0.09959408129768477,
      "M2 elastic net": -0.05893582075583015,
      "M3 LightGBM": -0.04902633227717046,
      "M4 hierarchical": -0.236065101703697
    },
    "median_doy": {
      "B0 climatology": 0.0,
      "B1 persistence": -0.2651304766031668,
      "M1a fall rain": -0.01421640555996806,
      "M1b GDD to 1 Mar": 0.11405639754138586,
      "M2 ridge": 0.07716824201836392,
      "M2 elastic net": 0.07560556614698444,
      "M3 LightGBM": 0.0032316446506309715,
      "M4 hierarchical": 0.1091670776325655
    }
  },
  "coefficients": {
    "logit": {
      "fall_prcp": [
        -0.0477,
        0.0691,
        0.1825
      ],
      "winter_prcp": [
        -0.0593,
        0.0592,
        0.1748
      ],
      "winter_tavg": [
        -0.249,
        -0.0753,
        0.0846
      ],
      "freeze_days": [
        -0.0481,
        0.0795,
        0.2073
      ],
      "gdd_mar1": [
        -0.0871,
        0.0524,
        0.2067
      ],
      "summer_pdsi": [
        -0.0901,
        0.0068,
        0.1007
      ]
    },
    "median_doy": {
      "fall_prcp": [
        -1.3167,
        0.5214,
        2.3852
      ],
      "winter_prcp": [
        -3.8559,
        -1.8693,
        0.1885
      ],
      "winter_tavg": [
        -3.8568,
        -1.5519,
        0.9518
      ],
      "freeze_days": [
        -2.4182,
        -0.2946,
        1.7133
      ],
      "gdd_mar1": [
        -4.283,
        -2.1148,
        0.1487
      ],
      "summer_pdsi": [
        -2.2364,
        -0.5315,
        1.0793
      ]
    }
  },
  "forecast": {
    "strength_per_1000": {
      "Travis": {
        "q10": 9.703,
        "q25": 13.619,
        "q50": 19.511,
        "q75": 26.885,
        "q90": 34.471,
        "p_below": 0.387,
        "p_near": 0.05,
        "p_above": 0.563
      },
      "Williamson": {
        "q10": 11.283,
        "q25": 16.243,
        "q50": 22.257,
        "q75": 30.13,
        "q90": 38.314,
        "p_below": 0.322,
        "p_near": 0.087,
        "p_above": 0.592
      },
      "Hays": {
        "q10": 8.065,
        "q25": 11.796,
        "q50": 17.333,
        "q75": 24.194,
        "q90": 31.416,
        "p_below": 0.283,
        "p_near": 0.192,
        "p_above": 0.525
      },
      "Burnet": {
        "q10": 10.567,
        "q25": 15.392,
        "q50": 21.594,
        "q75": 29.864,
        "q90": 38.364,
        "p_below": 0.256,
        "p_near": 0.226,
        "p_above": 0.518
      },
      "Llano": {
        "q10": 6.902,
        "q25": 12.27,
        "q50": 19.939,
        "q75": 32.209,
        "q90": 46.779,
        "p_below": 0.505,
        "p_near": 0.098,
        "p_above": 0.398
      },
      "Blanco": {
        "q10": 6.754,
        "q25": 11.522,
        "q50": 19.07,
        "q75": 30.592,
        "q90": 44.1,
        "p_below": 0.326,
        "p_near": 0.166,
        "p_above": 0.508
      },
      "Bastrop": {
        "q10": 7.072,
        "q25": 12.164,
        "q50": 20.085,
        "q75": 30.834,
        "q90": 44.158,
        "p_below": 0.064,
        "p_near": 0.046,
        "p_above": 0.89
      },
      "Central Texas": {
        "q10": 13.31,
        "q25": 16.34,
        "q50": 20.682,
        "q75": 25.596,
        "q90": 31.229,
        "p_below": 0.226,
        "p_near": 0.064,
        "p_above": 0.709
      }
    },
    "median_doy": {
      "Travis": {
        "q10": 69.04,
        "q25": 73.896,
        "q50": 78.808,
        "q75": 84.016,
        "q90": 89.115,
        "p_below": 0.282,
        "p_near": 0.14,
        "p_above": 0.578
      },
      "Williamson": {
        "q10": 70.923,
        "q25": 75.743,
        "q50": 80.568,
        "q75": 85.537,
        "q90": 90.425,
        "p_below": 0.17,
        "p_near": 0.299,
        "p_above": 0.532
      },
      "Hays": {
        "q10": 68.67,
        "q25": 73.269,
        "q50": 78.495,
        "q75": 83.961,
        "q90": 88.786,
        "p_below": 0.149,
        "p_near": 0.259,
        "p_above": 0.592
      },
      "Burnet": {
        "q10": 64.71,
        "q25": 69.359,
        "q50": 74.74,
        "q75": 80.179,
        "q90": 85.303,
        "p_below": 0.461,
        "p_near": 0.196,
        "p_above": 0.344
      },
      "Llano": {
        "q10": 69.171,
        "q25": 76.039,
        "q50": 83.555,
        "q75": 90.462,
        "q90": 97.528,
        "p_below": 0.196,
        "p_near": 0.112,
        "p_above": 0.692
      },
      "Blanco": {
        "q10": 69.84,
        "q25": 76.749,
        "q50": 83.616,
        "q75": 90.554,
        "q90": 96.735,
        "p_below": 0.18,
        "p_near": 0.11,
        "p_above": 0.711
      },
      "Bastrop": {
        "q10": 70.015,
        "q25": 76.764,
        "q50": 83.654,
        "q75": 90.318,
        "q90": 96.554,
        "p_below": 0.176,
        "p_near": 0.112,
        "p_above": 0.712
      },
      "Central Texas": {
        "q10": 71.507,
        "q25": 75.336,
        "q50": 79.222,
        "q75": 83.568,
        "q90": 87.494,
        "p_below": 0.186,
        "p_near": 0.227,
        "p_above": 0.588
      }
    }
  }
}